Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 36.935806 42.428616 48.356853 55.218006 62.927046 71.307842 81.094929
2024-12-15 27.982559 35.745209 44.911232 56.469611 70.586577 87.194113 108.130674
2024-12-22 20.774074 28.984032 39.420254 53.520239 71.912571 94.912014 125.643844
2024-12-29 17.603925 26.401308 38.273312 55.220702 78.499415 109.017381 151.648257
2025-01-05 15.658721 24.997422 38.262369 58.100287 86.550226 125.329607 181.502036
2025-01-12 13.017121 22.092821 35.642759 56.833840 88.495413 133.262919 200.338363
2025-01-19 10.631818 19.153046 32.502207 54.290074 88.127443 137.638725 214.183298
2025-01-26 9.952640 18.816691 33.250624 57.623549 96.648067 155.299138 248.206357
2025-02-02 9.670621 19.086523 34.952725 62.554867 107.938590 177.743908 290.654871
2025-02-09 8.685081 17.965092 34.193741 63.346967 112.659398 190.392831 318.930191
2025-02-16 7.696874 16.684071 32.989598 63.219162 115.785368 200.641775 343.968038
2025-02-23 6.767104 15.368800 31.553379 62.501487 117.785428 209.105652 366.532481
2025-03-02 6.032746 14.380278 30.687080 62.870816 121.953686 221.838442 397.592220
2025-03-09 5.397928 13.508931 29.958799 63.458212 126.630011 235.874009 431.959331
2025-03-16 4.437630 11.759014 27.270314 60.022264 123.713718 236.731560 444.209631
2025-03-23 4.106239 11.374395 27.299709 61.868002 130.677119 255.168691 487.597787
2025-03-30 3.919475 11.300000 27.966287 65.043379 140.383302 279.037381 541.761486
2025-04-06 3.397415 10.302464 26.496071 63.642029 141.072182 286.599250 567.385597
2025-04-13 2.852291 9.134196 24.475366 60.829293 138.673812 288.236350 582.309010
2025-04-20 2.781810 9.230462 25.396770 64.514400 149.726347 315.747950 646.102536
2025-04-27 2.811896 9.613712 27.044062 69.961567 164.792870 351.705643 727.311824
2025-05-04 2.581170 9.203072 26.700261 70.836060 170.296645 369.476028 775.172875
2025-05-11 2.323727 8.661418 25.955783 70.694968 173.595995 383.080584 815.742416